SIR FRACTIONAL ORDER OF COVID-19 BY ADAMS BASHFORTH-MOULTON METHOD
Zubaidah Sadikin1, Zaileha Md Ali2*, Fatin Nadira Rusly3, Nuramira Husna Abu Hassan4, Siti Rahimah Batcha5, Noratika Nordin6
1,2*,3,4,5,6 College of Computing Informatics and Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Selangor, Malaysia.
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ABSTRACT
This study addresses a research gap by introducing fractional order derivatives into the SIR model for tracking COVID-19 in Malaysia. The Caputo sense fractional derivative and the Adams Bashforth Moulton method are employed to analyse the COVID-19 behavior and stability. By manipulating fractional order derivative values, this study investigates their impact on key SIR parameters, observing that lower values accelerate the attainment of asymptotic behavior in populations. The stability analysis reveals two equilibrium points: an unstable disease-free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium within the system. This pioneering exploration of fractional order derivatives in the context of Malaysia's COVID-19 modeling contributes valuable insights, enhancing our understanding the behavior of the disease.
Keywords: SIR, Caputo Fractional Derivative, Covid-19, Adams Bashforth Moulton, Disease stability
Published On: 1 April 2024
