SIR FRACTIONAL ORDER OF COVID-19 BY ADAMS BASHFORTH-MOULTON METHOD

Zubaidah Sadikin¹, Zaileha Md Ali^2*, Fatin Nadira Rusly³, Nuramira Husna Abu Hassan⁴, Siti Rahimah Batcha⁵, Noratika Nordin⁶ 

^1,2*,3,4,5,6 College of Computing Informatics and Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Selangor, Malaysia.

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ABSTRACT

 

This study addresses a research gap by introducing fractional order derivatives into the SIR model for tracking COVID-19 in Malaysia. The Caputo sense fractional derivative and the Adams Bashforth Moulton method are employed to analyse the COVID-19 behavior and stability. By manipulating fractional order derivative values, this study investigates their impact on key SIR parameters, observing that lower values accelerate the attainment of asymptotic behavior in populations. The stability analysis reveals two equilibrium points: an unstable disease-free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium within the system. This pioneering exploration of fractional order derivatives in the context of Malaysia's COVID-19 modeling contributes valuable insights, enhancing our understanding the behavior of the disease.

 

Keywords: SIR, Caputo Fractional Derivative, Covid-19, Adams Bashforth Moulton, Disease stability

 

Published On: 1 April 2024

 

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